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paper-machine comments on Open thread, Mar. 9 - Mar. 15, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: MrMind 09 March 2015 07:48AM

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Comment author: PhilGoetz 11 March 2015 06:17:38PM *  3 points [-]

Basic question about bits of evidence vs. bits of information:

I want to know the value of a random bit. I'm collecting evidence about the value of this bit.

First off, it seems weird to say "I have 33 bits of evidence that this bit is a 1." What is a bit of evidence, if it takes an infinite number of bits of evidence to get 1 bit of information?

Second, each bit of evidence gives you a likelihood multiplier of 2. E.g., a piece of evidence that says the likelihood is 4:1 that the bit is a 1 gives you 2 bits of evidence about the value of that bit. Independent evidence that says the likelihood is 2:1 gives you 1 bit of evidence.

But that means a one-bit evidence-giver is someone who is right 2/3 of the time. Why 2/3?

Finally, if you knew nothing about the bit, and had the probability distribution Q = (P(1)=.5, P(0)=.5), and a one-bit evidence giver gave you 1 bit saying it was a 1, you now have the distribution P = (2/3, 1/3). The KL divergence of Q from P (log base 2) is only 0.0817, so it looks like you've gained .08 bits of information from your 1 bit of evidence. ???

Comment author: [deleted] 11 March 2015 06:38:40PM 1 point [-]

First off, it seems weird to say "I have 33 bits of evidence that this bit is a 1."

It seems weird to me because the bits of "33 bits" looks like the same units as the bit of "this bit", but they aren't the same. Map/territory. From now on, I'm calling the first, A-bits, and the second, B-bits.

Why does it take an infinite number of bits of evidence to get 1 bit of information?

It takes an infinite number of A-bits to know with absolute certainty one B-bit.

But that means a one-bit evidence-giver is someone who is right 2/3 of the time. Why the 2/3? That seems weird.

What were you expecting?