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owencb comments on Counterfactual trade - Less Wrong Discussion
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Good question. It is definitely underspecified (this is true of many counterfactuals as people think about them).
Where it's harder to get counterfactuals to work, this is likely to make them less salient, which means people are going to be less confident of having trade partners, so less likely to engage in trade (needing a better reward/cost ratio, I suppose).