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Romashka comments on Before the seed. I. Guesswork - Less Wrong Discussion
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Did you multiply your probabilities, or did you estimate only the last claims? That was an interesting and plausible analysis. What alternative hypotheses did you have in mind? (Me? Throw anything? Nonono, wasn't me...:)
It was so fuzzy - and more importantly, non-independent - I just gave a gut feeling at the end. This gut feeling basically amounted to, "supposing it turns out to be X/not-X, how stupid do I feel?" and taking the balance of those feelings. Basically, minimize regret since being right or wrong either way has the same impact..
Thank you. It is often how I feel IRL, when I need to, for example, compare two species. Maybe there's a way to formulate it clearer, and maybe subject matter/inferential gaps will always make it fuzzy - dunno, I am mostly trying to unlearn how it was taught to us in uni.