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Luke_A_Somers comments on Before the seed. I. Guesswork - Less Wrong Discussion
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It was so fuzzy - and more importantly, non-independent - I just gave a gut feeling at the end. This gut feeling basically amounted to, "supposing it turns out to be X/not-X, how stupid do I feel?" and taking the balance of those feelings. Basically, minimize regret since being right or wrong either way has the same impact..
Thank you. It is often how I feel IRL, when I need to, for example, compare two species. Maybe there's a way to formulate it clearer, and maybe subject matter/inferential gaps will always make it fuzzy - dunno, I am mostly trying to unlearn how it was taught to us in uni.