passive_fist comments on Efficient Open Source - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (39)
I know what you wrote. What I'm emphasizing is the mathematical differences between the five worlds question and the P vs. NP question, to counter your point.
Again, I know what you wrote. But this is a point that is worth repeating. And I'll repeat it again: It is very, very, very, very unlikely that P=NP.
The burden of proof is on you, here. I'm saying that there's no reason to assign high belief to what you claim. You must provide a reason for assigning high belief.
That would be an appropriate response if I had just said "Nope, P v NP is really important and resolving it would probably have useful and interesting consequences". Since what I actually did was to give some reasons for thinking that, and what you actually did was to dismiss them out of hand and (in some cases) write as if I simply hadn't written what I did, I'm not sure what further response I can usefully make.
As for the burden of proof, allow me to remind you that your comment that launched this discussion began this way:
It seems to me that that fact is already enough to put the burden of proof on the one who contends that P v NP doesn't matter. You might, of course, be right, but it seems that "a lot of people" -- including, my impression is, most people with substantial expertise in this stuff -- take a different view.
(Of course "burden of proof" is, when it's a useful idea at all, merely shorthand for something to do with prior probabilities. So I can rephrase the above: given that experts in the field generally appear to think that P v NP is important and interesting, and to expect valuable consequences if it's resolved, it seems obviously reasonable to me to give substantial probability to that in advance of investigating the question more directly. And it turns out that the question is really difficult to investigate directly, and our posterior probability estimates should be largely determined by our priors.)
I will say at slightly greater length why I think it likely (not certain) that a resolution to P v NP would be interesting and valuable: