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Lumifer comments on PredictIt, a prediction market out of New Zealand, now in beta. - Less Wrong Discussion

15 Post author: Jayson_Virissimo 16 March 2015 02:02AM

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Comment author: Lumifer 18 March 2015 02:45:59PM 3 points [-]

It directly affects your error estimates. If by "accuracy" you mean "forecasting capability" then inefficiency is a symptom of underlying problems (e.g. too few market participants) which do affect accuracy.