You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

Larks comments on Open thread, Mar. 16 - Mar. 22, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion

6 Post author: MrMind 16 March 2015 08:13AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Article Navigation

Comments (302)
Tags: open_thread

Comments (302)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: Larks 18 March 2015 01:54:32AM 3 points [-]

Suppose I wanted to predict the likelihood of and degree of delays and cost over-runs associated with a nuclear plant currently under construction. How would people recommend I do so?

Comment author: Tripitaka 18 March 2015 02:21:59AM 2 points [-]

Study existing literature. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bent_Flyvbjerg this guy got a lot of good press in germany, apparently he has written extensively on big infrastructure projects and cost overruns. I find Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition

Comment author: satt 22 March 2015 06:51:34PM 0 points [-]

Reference class forecasting: get a list of previously constructed nuclear power plants, look up how much they were delayed and over budget, then use the empirical probability distribution of delays and cost over-runs. (Bent Flyvbjerg, cited by Tripitaka, turns out to be very keen on RCF.)

Powered by Reddit Powered by Reddit