somervta comments on Error margins - Less Wrong Discussion
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Relevant previous LW posts on the A_p distribution and model stability
http://lesswrong.com/lw/igv/probability_knowledge_and_metaprobability/
http://lesswrong.com/lw/h78/estimate_stability/
http://lesswrong.com/lw/hnf/model_stability_in_intervention_assessment/
thanks :)