While others will probably answer your question as-is, I'd just like to point out that for most people who care about AI and who support MIRI, this is not the line of reasoning that convinced them nor is it the best reason to care. FAI is important because it would fix most of the world's problems and ensure us all very long, fulfilling lives, and because without it, we'd probably fail to capture the stars' potential and wither to death of old age.
Torture mostly comes up because philosophical thought-experiments tend to need a shorthand for "very bad thing not otherwise specified", and it's an instance of that which won't interact with other parts of the thought experiments or invite digressions.
If you believe my moral system (not the topic of this post) is patently absurd, please PM me the full version of your argument. I promise to review it with an open mind. Note: I am naturally afraid of torture outcomes, but that doesn't mean I'm not excited about FAI. That would be patently absurd.
Torture mostly comes up because philosophical thought-experiments...
To clarify: are you saying there is no chance of torture?
I am trying to decide how to allocate my charitable donations between GiveWell's top charities and MIRI, and I need a probability estimate to make an informed decision. Could you help me?
Background on my moral system: I place a greater value on reducing high doses of suffering of conscious entities than merely preventing death. An unexpected, instant, painless death is unfortunate, but I would prefer it to a painful and chronic condition.
Given my beliefs, it follows logically that I would pay a relatively large amount to save a conscious entity from prolonged torture.
The possibility of an AI torturing many conscious entities has been mentioned1 on this site, and I assume that funding MIRI will help reduce its probability. But what is its current probability?
Obviously a difficult question, but it seems to me that I need an estimate and there is no way around it. I don't even know where to start...suggestions?
1 http://lesswrong.com/lw/1pz/the_ai_in_a_box_boxes_you/