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knb comments on What you know that ain't so - Less Wrong Discussion

6 Post author: NancyLebovitz 23 March 2015 06:24PM

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Comment author: knb 23 March 2015 07:50:01PM 5 points [-]

This is an analysis of the Six Day War (Egypt vs. Israel, 1967)-- the Israelis were interested in how Egypt managed a surprise attack, and it turned out that too many Israelis believed that the Egyptians would only attack if they had rockets which could reach deep into Israel.

I believe they are actually talking about the Yom Kippur War of 1973. The Six Day War was a (highly successful) Israeli strike.

Comment author: skeptical_lurker 23 March 2015 08:21:44PM *  3 points [-]

The Six Day War is also an interesting example of a first strike. The Egyptians had hundreds of expensive fighters but did not spend the money to build bombproof hangers, which I can only assume would have been comparitivly very cheap, needing only concrete. As a result, they took >99% losses within half an hour.

Is not spending a small amount of resources on something mundane but vital a specific cognative bias?

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 24 March 2015 04:47:15PM 0 points [-]

That's hard to say. There might be a lot of precautions which are plausible and individually cheap, but all of them together are expensive. Some of the precautions might even be incompatible with each other.

I think that you'd need to have ways to know in advance which precautions are most important.

This being said, I really wish US airlines had reinforced cockpit doors before 9/11.

Comment author: Lumifer 24 March 2015 05:19:23PM 3 points [-]

I really wish US airlines had reinforced cockpit doors before 9/11

Wouldn't have helped. Before 9/11 the standard operating procedure -- that is, officially approved strategy taught to pilots -- was to cooperate with the hijackers, get the plane on the ground, negotiate from there.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 23 March 2015 08:21:37PM 1 point [-]

Corrected. Thanks.