= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Douglas_Knight comments on Bitcoin value and small probability / high impact arguments - Less Wrong Discussion
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (50)
Gold actually was hit with a black swan supply event a few hundred years ago.
Gold is quite rare in Europe and historically the cost of gold in silver was much lower everywhere else on Earth. This is part of why the Spanish were so excited to discover gold in the Americas. And this is why Europe shipped silver to China for centuries. But, in the end, Europe conquered the world and imposed its price ratio.
Indeed, I am aware. Though now a black swan supply event of that kind is rare, since we've already explored all the low-hanging fruit on earth, hence why exotic stuff like space mining, nanotech mining or nuclear transmutation may need to be involved. But I suppose something similar to this oil event: http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news2.13s.html could also happen right here on our own planet.
A comparison to precious gems might be instructive. It used to be that sapphires and rubies were treasure and now they are just a kind of transparent stuff to put over your watch face or an LCD...
The effect on synthetic gems on the market is a good example, but the effect is zero. They haven't stopped being treasure. But they haven't yet gotten to the point of indistinguishable at gem sizes. Synthetic gems have displaced mined gems for some industrial uses, but mainly they have greatly expanded industrial applications.
Synthetic diamonds maybe, but synthetic rubies were around a hundred years ago, and even with diamonds it seems clear that it's only a matter of time (if we're not already there). I hear that synthetic emeralds are actually preferred to natural emeralds for jewelry because they're significantly prettier.
Big nice rubies were produced a hundred years ago, but I'm pretty sure that even today they are distinguishable. It's just a matter of time, yet the prices do not seem to reflect that. And that's not just an illusion of jeweler's markup, but resale value.
I am not sure. They haven't stopped being high-status jewelry, but I don't know if they're still a store-of-value.
If you don't know, don't make shit up.
Do you happen to know? People still buy gold as an investment / store-of-value. Does anyone buy rubies and sapphires as an investment / store-of-value nowadays?
I don't know what people do or what they ever did, but I do know what I said: the effect on the market price of high-end gems has been zero.
The point is that a black swan supply shock need not have any effect on the price.