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adamzerner comments on Open Thread, Apr. 06 - Apr. 12, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion

4 Post author: philh 06 April 2015 02:18PM

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Comment author: Viliam 09 April 2015 08:06:55AM *  2 points [-]

I would love to try it. The problem is, I never did a project of this size, so I don't know if I am overconfident. I think that when I wrote "year", that already compensated for the planning fallacy (my first reaction was something like "three months"). Or, maybe I spend the whole year doing this, and at the end we find out that the project is ready and works, but maybe it is much slower than the original version. Etc.

What would be a good solution? Maybe first build a smaller prototype, measure the speed, and decide whether to move on. But this careful iterative programming does not seem compatible with the kickstarter approach.

So, uhm, maybe the small prototype first, and then the kickstarter?

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 09 April 2015 10:22:53AM 1 point [-]

I know even less about this sort of project than you do. My level of ignorance is shown by taking your claim that you could do it in a year at face value and only thinking about whether you could raise the money.

A test project sounds very reasonable. So does thinking about where you could go for competent advice about the difficulty and the risks of the project turning out badly.