jacob_cannell comments on Concept Safety: Producing similar AI-human concept spaces - Less Wrong Discussion
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Yes, more or less. I should now point out that almost everything of importance concerning the outcome is determined by the training dataset, not the model prior. This may seem counter-intuitive at first, but it is true and important.
This is not clear at all, and furthermore appears to contradict what you agreed to earlier above - namely that human minds can be described well as a specific type of RL agent with some particular utility function.
I consider myself reasonably up to date in both computational neuroscience and ML, and the most successful over-arching theory for explaining the brain today is indeed as a form of RL agent. Thus the RL framework in some sense is the most general framework we have and it includes human, animal, and a wide class of machine agents as special cases.
The 'framework' I proposed is minimal - describing the class of all RL agents requires just a few lines of math. Remember the training set is near infinite and perfect, so the tiny number of bits I am imposing on the model prior matters not at all.
You seem to perhaps believe that I am specifying a framework in terms of modules or connections or whatever on the agent, and that was not my idea at all (at least in the infinite computing case). I was proposing the absolute minimal assumptions. The inference engine will explore the model space - and probably come up with something ridiculous like simulations of universes if you give it infinite compute. With practical but very large amounts of compute power, it will - probably - come up some sort of approximate brain-like ANN solution.
I am skeptical you could demonstrate this, but you could start by taking one of the existing IRL systems in the literature and demonstrating the failure there. Or maybe I am unclear on the nature of your concern. You seem to be concerned with the details of how the resulting model works. I believe that is a fundamentally misguided notion, and instead we really care only about results. This could be a fundamental difference in mindsets - I"m very much an engineer.
In other words, the ultimate question is this: is the resulting agent better at doing what we actually want (on whatever set of tasks the training set includes) than the human experts that are the source of that training data?
For after all, that is the key advantage of RL techniques over supervised learning, an advantage which IRL inherits.
So here is a more practical set of experiments we could do today. Take a deep RL agent like deepmind's atari player. But instead of training it using the internal score as the reward function directly, we use IRL using traces of expert human play. We can compare to a baseline with the same model but trained using supervised learning. The supervised baseline would learn human errors and thus would asymptote at human level play. The IRL agent instead should eventually learn a good approximation of the score function as its utility/reward function and thus achieve capability close to the original RL agent.
A cool variation would be to add another training sequence where the human expert has additional constraints - such as maximize score without killing any other 'agents'. For the games for which that applies, I think that would be a really cool important demonstration of the beginnings of learning ethical behavior from humans.
So the core idea is to apply that same concept, but to life in general, where our 'game world' is the real world, and there is no predefined score function, and the ideal utility function must be inferred.
I don't claim to have a clear solution to the full problem yet, but my thought experiment above sketches out the vague beginnings of an IRL based solution. Again the training is everything - so the full solution becomes something more like educating an AI population, a problem that goes far beyond the basic math or machine learning and connects to politics, education, game theory, etc.
Yes, the model you get won't depend at all on the tiny number of bits that you are imposing, unless your model class is extremely crippled. This is precisely my point. You will get a really good model. But you imposed some structure in the model, perhaps with a little box labeled "utility function." After inference, that box isn't going to have the utility function in it. Why would your universe-simulating model bother dividing itself neatly into "utility function" and "everything else"? It will just ignore your division and do whatever is most efficient.
I believe you will get out a model that predicts human behavior well. I think we can agree on that! But it's just not enough to do anything with. Now you have a simulation of a human; what do you do with it?
You are making a further claim---that in the box labeled "utility function," the model will put a reasonable representation of a human utility function, such that you'd be happy with your AI maximizing that utility function. It seems like you are the one making a detailed assumption about how the learned model works, an assumption which seems implausible to me. If you think you aren't making such an assumption, could you express (even very informally) the argument that the IRL agent will work well?
If your model doesn't have a box labeled "utility function," can you say again how you are extracting the utility function from the learned model?
Or do you think that you will not find a reasonable utility function, but produce desirable behavior anyway? I don't understand why this would happen.
We seem to be talking past each other. Could you cite a paper with what you think is a plausible model? I could respond to any of them, but again it would feel like a straw man, because I don't think that the authors of these papers expect them to apply to general human behavior.
For example, most of these models make no attempt to model reasoning, and instead assume e.g. that the probability that an agent takes an action depends only on the payoff of that action. This is obviously not a very good model! How do you see this working?
I agree that this experiment can probably yield better behavior than training a supervised learner to reproduce human play.
But existing approaches won't scale to learn perfect play, even with infinite computing power and unlimited training data, except in extremely simple environments. To make this clear you'd have to fix a particular model, which I invite you to do. But I think that most (all?) models in the literature will converge to exactly reproducing the "modal human policy" (in each state, do the thing that the expert is most likley to do) in the limit of infinite training data and a sufficiently rich state space. Do you have a counterexample in mind?
You can probably get optimal play in the atari case by leaning heavily on the simplicity prior for the rewards and neglecting the training data. But earlier in your comment it (very strongly) sounded like you wanted to let the training data wash out the prior.
Hmm at this point I should now actually write out a simple RL model to help me understand your critique.
Here is some very simple math for a general RL setup (bellman-style recursive function form):
model = p(s,a,s')
policy(s) = argmax_a Q(s,a)
Q(s,a) = sum_s' p(s,a,s') [ R(s') + gV(s) ]
V(s) = max_a Q(s,a)
The function p(s,a,s') is the agent's world model which gives transition probabilities between consecutive states (s,s') on action a. The states really are observation histories - entire sequences of observations. The variable 'g' represents the discount factor (although really this should probably be a an unknown function). R(s') is the reward/utility function, and Q(s,a) is the value-action function that results from planning ahead to optimize R. The decision/policy function just selects the best action.
We condition on the actions and observations to learn the best model , reward and discount functions. And now I see your point (i think), after writing this out, that the model and reward functions are not really well distinguished and either could potentially substitute for the other (as they just multiply). It could learn a reward function that is just '1' and stuff everything in the model.
So - yes we need more prior structure than the 4 lines of math model. My initial initial guess was about 100 lines of math code in a tight prob prog model, which still may be reasonable in the future but is perhaps slightly optimistic.
Ok, so here is version 2. We know roughly that the cortex is responsible for modelling the world and we know its rough circuit complexity. So we can use that as a prior on the model function. Better yet, we can train the model function separately (constrained to cortex size or smaller), without including the policy function/argmax stuff, and on a dataset which includes situations where no actions are taken, forcing it to learn a world model first. Then we can use those results as an initial prior when we train the whole thing on the full dataset with the actions.
That doesn't totally solve the general form of your objection, but it at least forces the utility function to be somewhat more sensible. I can now kindof see where version 100 of this idea or so is going and how it could work well, but it probably requires increasingly complex models of human-like brains (along with more complex training schemes) as priors.
Extract is perhaps not the right word, but the general idea is that once we have learned a human-level model function and reward function, in theory we can get superintelligent extrapolation by improving the model function, running it faster, and or eliminating any planning limitations or noise. The model function we learn to explain human data in particular will only know/model what humans actually know.
The modal human policy, as you describe it, sounds identical to the supervised learner which just reproduces human ability. Beating supervised learning (the modal human policy) is again what really matters.
Not sure what you mean here - you need the training data to get up to any decent level of play. Perhaps you were thinking only of the utility function, but to learn that you still need some training data.
The deep ANN approach to RL is still new, and hasn't been merged with IRL research yet, which mostly appears to be in the small model stage (with the exception perhaps of some narrow applications in robotics and pathfinding).
They can also substitute in more subtle ways, e.g. by learning R(s) = 1 if the last action implied by the state history matches the predicted human action. If the human is doing RL imperfectly then that is going to have a much better explanatory fit to the data (it can be arbitrarily good, while any model of a human as a perfect RL agent will lose Bayes points all over the place), so you have to rely on the prior to see that it's a "bad" model.
That's my concern; I think things get pretty hairy, and moreover I don't know whether the resulting systems would typically be competitive with (e.g.) the best RL agents that we could design by more direct methods.
That's what I mean by a "box labeled 'utility function'."
Yes. Do you know any model of IRL that can (significantly) beat the modal human policy in this context?
Sorry, I meant "assign low total weight" to the training data, so that the learner can infer that some of the human's decisions were probably mistakes (since they can only be explained by an artificial reward function). This is very delicate, and it requires paying more attention to athe prior than you seemed to want to (and more attention to the prior than is consistent with actually making good predictions about human behavior).
That may or may not be a problem with the simplest version 1 of the idea, but it is not a problem in version 2 which imposes more realistic priors/constraints and also uses model pretraining on just state transitions to force differentiation of the model and reward functions.
Ok, I think we are kindof in agreement, but first let me recap where we are. This all started when I claimed that your 'easy IRL problem' - solve IRL given infinite compute and infinite perfect training data - is relatively easy and could probably be done in 100 lines of math. We both agreed that supervised learning (reproducing the training set - the modal human policy) would be obviously easy in this setting.
After that the discussion forked and got complicated - which I realize in hindsight - stems from not clearly specifying what would entail success. So to be more clear - success of the IRL approach can be measured as improvement over supervised learning - as measured in the recovered utility function. Which of course leads to this whole other complexity - how do we know that is the 'true utility function' - leave that aside for a second, and I'll get back to it.
I then brought up a concrete example of using IRL on an deep RL Atari agent. I described how learning the score function should be relatively straightforward, and this would allow an IRL agent to match the performance of the RL agent in this domain, which leads to better performance than the supervised/modal human policy.
You agreed with this:
So it seems we have agreed that IRL surpassing the modal human policy is clearly possible - at least in the limited domain of atari.
If we already know the utility function apriori, then obviously IRL given the same resources can only do as good as RL. But that isn't that interesting, and remember IRL can do much more - as in the example of learning to maximize score while under other complex constraints.
So in scaling up to more general problem domains, we have the issue of modelling mistakes - which you seem to be especially focused on - and the related issue of utility function uniqueness.
Versions 2 and later of my simple proto-proposal use more informed priors for the circuit complexity combined with pretraining the model on just observations to force differentiate the model and utility functions. In the case of atari, getting the utility function to learn the score should be relatively easy - as we know it is a simple immediate visual function.
This type of RL architecture can model human's limited rationality by bounding the circuit complexity - at least that's the first step. We could get increasingly more accurate models of the human decision surface by incorporating more of the coarse abstract structure of the brain as a prior over our model space.
Ok, so backing up a bit :
For the full AGI problem, I am aware of a couple of interesting candidates for an intrinsic reward/utility function - the future freedom of action principle (power) and the compression progress measure (curiosity). If scaled up to superhuman intelligence, I think/suspect you would agree that both of these candidates are probably quite dangerous. On the other hand, they seem to capture some aspects of human's intrinsic motivators, so they may be useful as subcomponents or features.
The IRL approach - if taken all the way - seems to require reverse engineering the brain. It could be that any successful route to safe superintelligence just requires this - because the class of agents that combine our specific complex unknown utility functions with extrapolated superintelligence necessarily can only be specified in reference to our neural architecture as a starting point.
This sounds really interesting and important (if true), but I have only a vague understanding of how you arrived at this conclusion. Please consider writing a post about it.
It's not so much a conclusion as an intuition, and most of the inferences leading up to it are contained in this thread with PaulChristiano and a related discussion with Kaj Sotala.
I'm interested in IRL and I think it's the most promising current candidate for value learning, but I must admit I haven't read much of the relevant literature yet. Reading up on IRL and writing a discussion post on it has been on my todo list - your comment just bumped it up a bit. :)
Another related issue is the more general question of how the training data/environment determines/shapes safety issues for learning agents.
My reaction when I first came across IRL is similar to this author's:
But maybe it's not a bad approach for solving a hard problem to first solve a very simplified version of it, then gradually relax the simplifying assumptions and try to build up to a solution of the full problem.
As a side note, that author's attempt at value learning is likely to suffer from the same problem Christiano brought up in this thread - there is nothing to enforce that the optimization process will actually nicely separate the reward and agent functionality. Doing that requires some more complex priors and or training tricks.
The author's critique about limiting assumptions may or may not be true, but the author only quotes a single paper from the IRL field - and its from 2000. That paper and it's follow up both each have 500+ citations, and some of the newer work with IRL in the title is from 2008 or later. Also - most of the related research doesn't use IRL in the title - ie "Probabilistic reasoning from observed context-aware behavior".
This is actually the mainline successful approach in machine learning - scaling up. MNIST is a small 'toy' visual learning problem, but it lead to CIFAR10/100 and eventually ImageNet. The systems that do well on ImageNet descend from the techniques that did well on MNIST decades ago.
MIRI/LW seems much more focused on starting with a top-down approach where you solve the full problem in an unrealistic model - given infinite compute - and then scale down by developing some approximation.
Compare MIRI/LW's fascination with AIXI vs the machine learning community. Searching for "AIXI" on r/machinelearning gets a single hit vs 634 results on lesswrong. Based on #citations of around 150 or so, AIXI is a minor/average paper in ML (more minor than IRL), and doesn't appear to have lead to great new insights in terms of fast approximations to bayesian inference (a very active field that connects mostly to ANN research).
MIRI is taking the top-down approach since that seems to be the best way to eventually obtain an AI for which you can derive theoretical guarantees. In the absence of such guarantees, we can't be confident that an AI will behave correctly when it's able to think of strategies or reach world states that are very far outside of its training and testing data sets. The price for pursuing such guarantees may well be slower progress in making efficient and capable AIs, with impressive and/or profitable applications, which would explain why the mainstream research community isn't very interested in this approach.
I tend to agree with MIRI that the top-down approach is probably safest, but since it may turn out to be too slow to make any difference, we should be looking at other approaches as well. If you're thinking about writing a post about recent progress in IRL and related ideas, I'd be very interested to see it.