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els comments on Rationality Reading Group: Introduction and A: Predictably Wrong - Less Wrong Discussion

11 [deleted] 17 April 2015 01:40AM

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Comment author: [deleted] 17 April 2015 08:22:36AM 6 points [-]

Good insight!! Once the older boy I nanny for mentioned Murphy's Law to me on the way home from school. I said, "That's a silly law. Let's play a little game called Disproving Murphy's Law." So we all did:

-Hey, that car didn't smash us! -I didn't twist my ankle in P.E. when we ran on bumpy grass! -You didn't give me carrots in my lunch today! -A sniper didn't just shoot us from behind that tree! -We didn't have bad weather!

It's a nice (and sometimes hilarious) game, kind of like the reverse of that multi-use psychology tactic where people are supposed to think of things they're thankful for.

"The number of things which could actually go wrong will exceed the number you will think of, with higher probabilities than you assign."

I'm going to share your revised version with them tomorrow :)