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gjm comments on Stupid Questions May 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion

10 Post author: Gondolinian 01 May 2015 05:28PM

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Comment author: sixes_and_sevens 02 May 2015 12:54:49AM 4 points [-]

If someone reports inconsistent preferences in the Allais paradox, they're violating the axiom of independence and are vulnerable to a Dutch Book. How would you actually do that? What combination of bets should they accept that would yield a guaranteed loss for them?

Comment author: gjm 02 May 2015 07:59:42PM 4 points [-]

There is a demonstration of exactly this in Eliezer's post from 2008 about the Allais paradox.

(Eliezer modified the numbers a bit, compared with other statements of the Allais paradox that I've seen. I don't think this makes a substantial difference to what's going on.)