Epictetus comments on Open Thread, May 4 - May 10, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Interested in what you guys think about this. Jayman(hbd blogger) say's parenting has no effect on how children turn out. Seems empirically incorrect to me and it's just probably difficult to encapsulate the results/hard to see non-linearities to make it easy to reference.
He insists on twin-adoption studies contrary to my views.
Thoughts? This sort of seems like the two cultures divide we agree on. I might make a thread just for this.
Argument: Does parenting have any effect on child outcomes?
His view: Zero effect & Breast milk confers no advantage either
My view: Parenting has some variable effect that is difficult to encapsulate in the studies he references while maintaining the correctness and good taste of genetic arguments.
I cite decision theory, statistical inference, study design, and the related area as being primal over empirical references which have failed to encapsulate the effects he is pointing to in his observables. Statistical inference just doesn't work like that to give such strong conclusions. Any one who reads the literature on study design/inference knows that it's just not possible to give recommendations that are that strong. Sort of in the realm is Isaac Levi's "Gambling with the Truth" if not only the first few chapters although not quite, probably just statistical study design/inference in general.
Thoughts any one? I think scientists or empirical researchers are not used to being told that there is a higher plane of reference. Saying that there is zero influence is equivalent to saying all the relevant variables have been enumerated and assigned exact values for probability & effect and that there is nothing else to be assigned.
I believe my orientation is correct.
edit: I might add that not ONLY would that be saying that the relevant variables have been completely enumerated && assigned cost functions but that we are sure there is nothing else(no uncertainty) and that we are sure they all equal zero/canceled out.
Here is a government study showing a markedly higher risk for perpetrating violent crime among children who were abused or neglected by their parents. So that's one effect. Bad parenting leads to bad outcomes.
That study is observational, not experimental. Maybe genes for disagreeableness make parents abuse their children, and they pass those genes on to their offspring. Probably both nature and nurture contribute.
Certainly. Correlation isn't causation. One hurdle is that any experimental study of this phenomenon would be highly unethical.
But all is not lost. Single-parent households are also associated with higher risk of juvenile delinquency. I'll see if I can dig up a study of children abused by foster parents or step-parents.
Single-parent households are also associated with higher rates of parental divorce and teenage pregnancy.
I think I remember reading what happens if you only look at single-parent households where the other parent got sick and died, but I don't remember the answer.
Not always. It might be possible that there are orphanage systems where children are randomly assigned to either orphanage A or orphanage B. If you go to Africa to set up such a system you can add special funding to one of the two orphanages to raise it's quality much higher than that of the average African orphanage.
You can also split test different educational philosophies that way.
Here is a different study which says:
Indeed. One could also look at Sariaslan's population registry studies.
Sadly, most of these sorts of studies can be written off with a single sentence: "includes no family design, therefore is useless and merely shows that heritable traits gonna inherit."