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Lumifer comments on Open Thread, May 4 - May 10, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion

3 Post author: Gondolinian 04 May 2015 12:06AM

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Comment author: SanguineEmpiricist 04 May 2015 03:14:08AM *  3 points [-]

Interested in what you guys think about this. Jayman(hbd blogger) say's parenting has no effect on how children turn out. Seems empirically incorrect to me and it's just probably difficult to encapsulate the results/hard to see non-linearities to make it easy to reference.

He insists on twin-adoption studies contrary to my views.

Thoughts? This sort of seems like the two cultures divide we agree on. I might make a thread just for this.

Argument: Does parenting have any effect on child outcomes?

  • His view: Zero effect & Breast milk confers no advantage either

  • My view: Parenting has some variable effect that is difficult to encapsulate in the studies he references while maintaining the correctness and good taste of genetic arguments.

I cite decision theory, statistical inference, study design, and the related area as being primal over empirical references which have failed to encapsulate the effects he is pointing to in his observables. Statistical inference just doesn't work like that to give such strong conclusions. Any one who reads the literature on study design/inference knows that it's just not possible to give recommendations that are that strong. Sort of in the realm is Isaac Levi's "Gambling with the Truth" if not only the first few chapters although not quite, probably just statistical study design/inference in general.

Thoughts any one? I think scientists or empirical researchers are not used to being told that there is a higher plane of reference. Saying that there is zero influence is equivalent to saying all the relevant variables have been enumerated and assigned exact values for probability & effect and that there is nothing else to be assigned.

I believe my orientation is correct.

edit: I might add that not ONLY would that be saying that the relevant variables have been completely enumerated && assigned cost functions but that we are sure there is nothing else(no uncertainty) and that we are sure they all equal zero/canceled out.

Comment author: Lumifer 04 May 2015 06:14:08AM 3 points [-]

You might be interested in a fairly well-known book, The Nurture Assumption.

Comment author: SanguineEmpiricist 04 May 2015 06:09:19PM 1 point [-]

I will read it but I must insist I do not have any 'nurture' assumption.

Comment author: Lumifer 04 May 2015 06:55:25PM 2 points [-]

"Nurture" here is a synonym for parenting (nature vs nurture as in genes vs upbringing). The nurture assumption is that parenting matters. You seem to believe that parenting matters.

Comment author: SanguineEmpiricist 04 May 2015 07:04:32PM *  -1 points [-]

I don't think that definition is adequate.

Non-naive nurture matters to an extent, my argument has nuance. This is pretty much the exact domain of statistical decision theory/prescriptive decision theory and its conclusions have strict priority. The problem is that a large class of the professional intellectual class have not caught up.

Comment author: SolveIt 04 May 2015 10:38:55PM *  5 points [-]

A comment on your style of argumentation in general: Can you please stop vaguely referring to theories without pinpointing what exactly it says that supports your view?