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passive_fist comments on Open Thread, May 4 - May 10, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion

3 Post author: Gondolinian 04 May 2015 12:06AM

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Comment author: SanguineEmpiricist 04 May 2015 03:14:08AM *  3 points [-]

Interested in what you guys think about this. Jayman(hbd blogger) say's parenting has no effect on how children turn out. Seems empirically incorrect to me and it's just probably difficult to encapsulate the results/hard to see non-linearities to make it easy to reference.

He insists on twin-adoption studies contrary to my views.

Thoughts? This sort of seems like the two cultures divide we agree on. I might make a thread just for this.

Argument: Does parenting have any effect on child outcomes?

  • His view: Zero effect & Breast milk confers no advantage either

  • My view: Parenting has some variable effect that is difficult to encapsulate in the studies he references while maintaining the correctness and good taste of genetic arguments.

I cite decision theory, statistical inference, study design, and the related area as being primal over empirical references which have failed to encapsulate the effects he is pointing to in his observables. Statistical inference just doesn't work like that to give such strong conclusions. Any one who reads the literature on study design/inference knows that it's just not possible to give recommendations that are that strong. Sort of in the realm is Isaac Levi's "Gambling with the Truth" if not only the first few chapters although not quite, probably just statistical study design/inference in general.

Thoughts any one? I think scientists or empirical researchers are not used to being told that there is a higher plane of reference. Saying that there is zero influence is equivalent to saying all the relevant variables have been enumerated and assigned exact values for probability & effect and that there is nothing else to be assigned.

I believe my orientation is correct.

edit: I might add that not ONLY would that be saying that the relevant variables have been completely enumerated && assigned cost functions but that we are sure there is nothing else(no uncertainty) and that we are sure they all equal zero/canceled out.

Comment author: passive_fist 04 May 2015 06:29:26AM 2 points [-]

I think you're essentially right, but just out of curiosity, what are the 'twin-adoption studies' he refers to? As far as I know, there are really very few twins where one twin has grown up entirely separate from the other.

Comment author: SanguineEmpiricist 04 May 2015 06:40:59AM 2 points [-]

I'm not sure, I just took his word on it. I'll ask him in the morning and edit it in later

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 04 May 2015 04:50:08PM 1 point [-]

Yes, separated twins are rare. But twins and adoption by themselves are common and can be studied separately. Either one alone can separate nature from nurture. And they both show the same result: 50% genetics, 0% parenting.

Comment author: passive_fist 04 May 2015 08:36:40PM 2 points [-]

Either one alone can separate nature from nurture.

In what way? As knb mentioned above, parenting has a direct effect on e.g. what language you learn. On the other hand, parenting has zero effect on, for example, the color of your eyes. So you have to first specify what variables you're looking at.

And they both show the same result: 50% genetics, 0% parenting.

I hope you realize that this is an extremely strong claim.