DeVliegendeHollander comments on Open Thread, May 4 - May 10, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Interested in what you guys think about this. Jayman(hbd blogger) say's parenting has no effect on how children turn out. Seems empirically incorrect to me and it's just probably difficult to encapsulate the results/hard to see non-linearities to make it easy to reference.
He insists on twin-adoption studies contrary to my views.
Thoughts? This sort of seems like the two cultures divide we agree on. I might make a thread just for this.
Argument: Does parenting have any effect on child outcomes?
His view: Zero effect & Breast milk confers no advantage either
My view: Parenting has some variable effect that is difficult to encapsulate in the studies he references while maintaining the correctness and good taste of genetic arguments.
I cite decision theory, statistical inference, study design, and the related area as being primal over empirical references which have failed to encapsulate the effects he is pointing to in his observables. Statistical inference just doesn't work like that to give such strong conclusions. Any one who reads the literature on study design/inference knows that it's just not possible to give recommendations that are that strong. Sort of in the realm is Isaac Levi's "Gambling with the Truth" if not only the first few chapters although not quite, probably just statistical study design/inference in general.
Thoughts any one? I think scientists or empirical researchers are not used to being told that there is a higher plane of reference. Saying that there is zero influence is equivalent to saying all the relevant variables have been enumerated and assigned exact values for probability & effect and that there is nothing else to be assigned.
I believe my orientation is correct.
edit: I might add that not ONLY would that be saying that the relevant variables have been completely enumerated && assigned cost functions but that we are sure there is nothing else(no uncertainty) and that we are sure they all equal zero/canceled out.
Hint: when the result of scientific studies is confusing, not conclusive, it is probably better to take a step back and try to see things from a common-sense angle, because it helps deciding what would we exactly want kinds of hypotheses we want scientists to test.
So let's generate typical parenting moves that we may think could have an impact.
Positive:
getting children hooked on reading (worked for me and I guess for 75% of LW)
getting children hooked on sports (discipline, mature thinking, a friend's 13 year old athlete daughter is literally the most adult thinking child I ever saw)
an athmosphere of ambition and confidence (don't think CEOs are a separate kind of people who reproduce amongst themselves, think like you can become one)
Negative:
the usual kind of violent, abusive, drunken non-parenting, the chaotic environment of parents with problematic personality disorders
not insisting on things like homework, not caring about grades
anti-intellectual athmosphere at home, against studying, "why care about geography just be a miner like your dad"
unpredictable parenting
The question is, are they testing these?
The case is made over twin studies. If you believe that parents equally try to get all their children hooked on reading, it's factored in.
You assume that the people here wouldn't have getting hooked on reading if their parents didn't encourage reading.
It's too far against nurture. This is pushing against the limit for hard reductionism there are definitely non-genetic emergent effects while maintaining the absolute good taste of genetic arguments.