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James_Miller comments on California Drought thread - Less Wrong Discussion

3 Post author: SanguineEmpiricist 07 May 2015 06:44PM

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Comment author: James_Miller 07 May 2015 11:02:55PM 1 point [-]

That has been a known issue for at least a decade, and California elected not to fix that issue when it would have been easier.

So doesn't that make this issue appropriate for a blog devoted to rational decision making? Plus, global warming could create massive water shortages in China and India so over the long run figuring out rational ways of politically dealing with this issue is important.

Comment author: ChristianKl 10 May 2015 12:55:54AM 2 points [-]

Plus, global warming could create massive water shortages in China and India so over the long run figuring out rational ways of politically dealing with this issue is important.

The political system in California is radically different then the one in China. Political solutions are likely to look different.

Comment author: drethelin 08 May 2015 04:12:19AM 1 point [-]

How would global warming create water shortages? Warmer weather means stronger monsoons, according to the geological record.

Comment author: ChristianKl 08 May 2015 01:26:17PM *  0 points [-]

Climate change is more than just warming.

The IPCC report says:

Impacts from recent climate-related extremes, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, and wildfires, reveal significant vulnerability and exposure of some ecosystems and many human systems to current climate variability (very high confidence). Impacts of such climate-related extremes include alteration of ecosystems, disruption of food production and water supply, damage to infrastructure and settlements, morbidity and mortality, and consequences for mental health and human well-being. For countries at all levels of development, these impacts are consistent with a significant lack of preparedness for current climate variability in some sectors.

A few pages afterwards they list high confidence for climate change attributed water issues in the US West Coast.

The IPCC report is a really nice document and might be one of the best sources for understanding climate change.

Comment author: Romashka 08 May 2015 09:44:46AM 0 points [-]

FWIW, [I heard that] arid ecosystems might arise from cooler and drier climate, not only warmer and drier ones. Thus, if global warming makes Gulf Stream disappear and it leads to cooling of some areas it used to affect, they may become arid geologically soon. But I am not an expert, this is just how I imagine it could happen.

Comment author: VoiceOfRa 09 May 2015 01:45:30AM 3 points [-]

So would you find the reverse, i.e., climates becoming wetter due to global warming, equally plausible?

Comment author: Romashka 09 May 2015 02:30:35AM 1 point [-]

I think that in some parts of the world, for example Maritime Antarctica, it will plausibly grow wetter, and in others, like Europe, drier. On average.

Comment author: James_Miller 08 May 2015 05:10:25AM 0 points [-]

I'm not sure, but I heard this and asked an expert I know (an economist who studies global warming) who confirmed it.

Comment author: VoiceOfRa 09 May 2015 01:42:26AM 0 points [-]

Yes, if you ask a global warming expert whether some observation confirms his theory, he'll say yes, even if yesterday he said the opposite observation confirms it.

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