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HungryHobo comments on The File Drawer Effect and Conformity Bias (Election Edition) - Less Wrong Discussion
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I was looking at paddypower (they take bets on the election) and while they were more accurate than the polls they were still underestimating the number of seats the tories were going to get by ~50 seats. I think the safest bet the day before was the tories in a coalition.
Yes, the bookies performed better, but still not particularly well.
It has been been pointed out that it's hard to predict, especially the future :-)