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ChristianKl comments on In praise of gullibility? - Less Wrong Discussion

23 Post author: ahbwramc 18 June 2015 04:52AM

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Comment author: [deleted] 18 June 2015 08:26:43AM 4 points [-]

I've had several experiences similar to what Scott describes, of being trapped between two debaters who both had a convincingness that exceeded my ability to discern truth.

I always feel so.

I see a lot of rational sounding arguments from red-pillers, manosphericals, conservatives, reactionaries, libertarians, the ilk. And then I see the counter-arguments from liberals, feminists, leftists and the ilk that pretty much boil down to the other side just being uncompassionate assholes and desperately rationalizing it with arguments. Well, rationalizing is a very universal feature and they sometimes do seem like really selfish people indeed... so I really don't know who to believe.

Or climate change. What little I know about the scientific method says this is NOT how you do science. You don't just make a computer simulation in 1980 or so that would predict oceans boiling away by 2000 and when it fails to happen just tweak it and say this second time now you surely got it right. Yet, pretty much every prestigious scientist supports the "alarmist" side and on the other side I see only marginal, low-status "cranks" - and they are curiously politically motivated. So who do I support?

In such dilemmas, I think the best thing is to figure out what is it your "corrupted hardware" wants to do and do the opposite - do the opposite what your instincts i.e. evolved biases suggest.

Well, no luck. On one side, I see people who are high-status, intellectual, and look really nice and empathic and compassionate. Of course my instincts like that. On the other side, I see people who look brave, tough, critical-minded and creative, plus they seem to be far more historically literate, so basically NRx and libertarians and similar folks give me that kind of "inventor" vibe, which incidentally is also something my instincts like.

I like both sides - and yet, to decide rationally, I should probably choose something I instinctively dislike.

Comment author: ChristianKl 18 June 2015 01:19:51PM 2 points [-]

You don't just make a computer simulation in 1980 or so that would predict oceans boiling away by 2000 and when it fails to happen just tweak it and say this second time now you surely got it right.

The way climate science is done is much more complex than that, and nobody did predict boiling oceans.

Comment author: [deleted] 18 June 2015 01:48:06PM -1 points [-]

I mean, I have read blog posts people acquiring and trying the source code and it was the result they got. Of course such results were not published.

Comment author: Lumifer 18 June 2015 04:02:03PM 3 points [-]

I have read blog posts people acquiring and trying the source code and it was the result they got

The source code is of a model. The model has many parameters to tune it (that's an issue, but a separate one) -- you probably can tune it to boil the oceans by 2000, but nothing requires you to be that stupid :-/

Comment author: gjm 18 June 2015 02:20:46PM 2 points [-]

These people took NASA's GISTEMP code and translated it into Python, cleaning it up and clarifying it as they went. They didn't get boiling oceans. (They did find some minor bugs. These didn't make much difference to the results.)

Can you tell us more about the people who said they tried to use climate scientists' code and got predictions of boiling oceans? Is it at all possible that they had some motivation to get bad results out of the code?