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Mark_Friedenbach comments on Leaving LessWrong for a more rational life - Less Wrong Discussion
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Oh, well I mostly agree with you there. Really ending aging will have a transformative effect on society, but the invention of AI is not going to radically alter power structures in the way that singulatarians imagine.
See, I include the whole 'immanent radical life extension' and 'Drexlerian molecular manufacturing' idea sets in the singulatarian complex...
The craziest person in the world can still believe the sky is blue.
Ah, but in this case as near as i can tell it is actually orange.
This just seems stupid to me. Ending aging is fundamentally SLOW change. In 100 or 200 or 300 years from now, as more and more people gain access to anti-aging (since it will start off very expensive), we can worry about that. But conscious AI will be a force in the world in under 50 years. And it doesn't even have to be SUPER intelligent to cause insane amounts of social upheaval. Duplicability means that even 1 human level AI can be world-wide or mass produced in a very short time!
"Will"? You guarantee that?
"The medical revolution that began with the beginning of the twentieth century had warped all human society for five hundred years. America had adjusted to Eli Whitney's cotton gin in less than half that time. As with the gin, the effects would never quite die out. But already society was swinging back to what had once been normal. Slowly; but there was motion. In Brazil a small but growing, alliance agitated for the removal of the death penalty for habitual traffic offenders. They would be opposed, but they would win."
Larry Niven: The Gift From Earth
Well there are some serious ramifications that are without historical precedent. For example, without menopause it may perhaps become the norm for women to wait until retirement to have kids. It may in fact be the case that couples will work for 40 years, have a 25-30 year retirement where they raise a cohort of children, and then re-enter the work force for a new career. Certainly families are going to start representing smaller and smaller percentages of the population as birth rates decline while people get older and older without dying. The social ramifications alone will be huge, which was more along the lines of what I was talking about.