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ChristianKl comments on [Link] Throwback Thursday: Are asteroids dangerous? - Less Wrong Discussion

1 Post author: Gunnar_Zarncke 23 May 2015 08:00AM

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Comment author: ChristianKl 23 May 2015 10:56:23AM 2 points [-]

There's a lot of narrative in the article but no source of where his risk figures come from.

Another source estimates the risk to be two orders of magnitude higher (http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/10/13/death-by-meteorite/#.VWBSy_ntlBc):

Astronomer Alan Harris has made that calculation. Allowing for the number of Earth-crossing asteroids — the kind that can hit us because their orbits around the Sun intersect ours — as well as how much damage they can do (which depends on their size), he calculated that any person’s lifetime odds of being killed by an asteroid impact are about 1 in 700,000.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 24 May 2015 06:13:11AM *  3 points [-]

The article was per year, not lifetime odds. Depending on the detailed assumptions, I'd eye ball those two numbers as actually quite close, given the inherent uncertainty.

One-in-70,000,000. On average.