Historically, this has not been the case
Hmm, that's unfortunate and decreases my confidence that this could work out.
I am curious about the use of 'sense' instead of 'suspect.'
Just trying to qualitatively communicate my level of confidence. Suspect might mean ~60% confident where sense might mean ~75%.
My impression is that the trouble is not motivating volunteers to "make the change," the trouble is motivating volunteers to overcome the hurdles to get to the point where they are able to make the change.
My view is actually more that there are certain "gates to be opened". If you open 4/5 gates but the fifth gate is still closed, it won't be enough. Something along those lines. As to your points, they both seem like "gates" to me.
This article is something that has been in my head for a while. I hadn't planned on doing a write-up so soon. I wanted to take the time to a) refine my ideas and b) figure out how to express them clearly before posting. But the recent post Less Wrong lacks direction made me change my mind. My thinking now is that I overestimated the downside (wasting peoples time with a less than fully thought out post) and that there's enough value to justify posting a rough draft now.
LessWrong has been one of the most amazing things I've experienced in my life.
Easy
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