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Stuart_Armstrong comments on No peace in our time? - Less Wrong Discussion
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Well, 70 years of 1/37 risk still has 13% chance of showing zero wars. Could happen. (Since we are talking about smaller ones rather than WWIII anthropics doesn't distort the probabilities measurably.)
One could buy a Pinker improvement scenario and yet be concerned about a heavy tail due to nuclear or bio warfare of existential importance. The median cases might decline and the rate of events go down, yet the tail get nastier.
Indeed. This is not a proof of the "long peace", just showing the paper doesn't disprove it.