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drethelin comments on No peace in our time? - Less Wrong Discussion

9 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 26 May 2015 02:41PM

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Comment author: drethelin 28 May 2015 06:05:45AM 2 points [-]
Comment author: VoiceOfRa 28 May 2015 06:47:47AM 8 points [-]

Pinker's response is shall we say interesting, first he says:

The book does not claim that the mean of the distribution of war deaths has changed; it explicitly notes that power-law distributions (such as those commonly fitted to war deaths) don’t have calculable means. Like Taleb, the book points out that empirically observed data from the tail of a power-law distribution provide unreliable evidence for its underlying parameters.

He than proceeds to demonstrate that he doesn't in fact understand the implications of these statistics by writing stuff like this:

Finally, Taleb thinks that it is damning that “You can look at the data he presents and actually see a rise in war effects, comparing pre-1914 to post 1914.” Yes, that’s exactly what I point out: great-power wars became steadily more destructive from 1500 through 1945. The turning point that marks the onset the Long Peace was in 1945, not 1914.

A power law distribution means that at any given time not during a major war it looks like war has fallen to unprecedented levels.

A hypothetical proto-Pinker writing in 1913 could similarly note that the turning point was in 1814, possibly even citing the Franco-Prussian war to show how wars between great powers are now short and limited.

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 28 May 2015 09:10:43PM 1 point [-]

Not disagreeing, but I repeat that the hypothesis that 1945/1953 represent turning points is not unreasonable. and should be tested directly.

Comment author: VoiceOfRa 28 May 2015 10:41:43PM *  1 point [-]

What does "turning point" mean in the context of a power law distribution?

Comment author: gwern 29 May 2015 12:31:40AM *  2 points [-]

The simplest power law , a*x^k has two parameters which govern the overall location and the fatness of tails, I think. You could expect a change in either or both. So you could fit a time-series model in which a and k can change each year by an amount drawn from a distribution, and then see whether the data supports a large net change since 1945? This is what I take Stuart as suggesting.

Comment author: ChristianKl 29 May 2015 04:22:05PM 1 point [-]

The problem is that you can't estimate 'k' well enough, at least that's what Taleb argues at various places.

Comment author: gwern 29 May 2015 09:23:55PM 3 points [-]

The available data must support some range of ks, some precision, and if allowing any shift of k over time indicates that k has fallen a lot lately, that's pretty bad for their theory. If they say you should ignore the data, then they're doing theology.

Comment author: ChristianKl 30 May 2015 12:15:47AM 1 point [-]

The point is range of ks is quite large. That's what Taleb's work as a professor of Risk Engineering is about.

Comment author: gwern 30 May 2015 01:36:11AM 2 points [-]

If the range of ks is large then the posterior probability of a shift (or to put it another way, the estimated probability that pre-WWII ks differ from post-WWII ks) will be appropriately small and Taleb will have demonstrated what he wants to demonstrate without so much rhetoric and an analysis that largely misses the point.

Comment author: satt 30 May 2015 11:59:31AM 0 points [-]

Note that that looks like Steven Pinker's 2012 response to Taleb's earlier criticism of the book. I don't think it's a newly written response to Cirillo & Taleb's paper.