= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
ChristianKl comments on No peace in our time? - Less Wrong Discussion
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (38)
The point is range of ks is quite large. That's what Taleb's work as a professor of Risk Engineering is about.
If the range of ks is large then the posterior probability of a shift (or to put it another way, the estimated probability that pre-WWII ks differ from post-WWII ks) will be appropriately small and Taleb will have demonstrated what he wants to demonstrate without so much rhetoric and an analysis that largely misses the point.