Lumifer comments on A survey of the top posters on lesswrong - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (38)
The "competent" part is the iffy one, but the startup world is chock-full of "determined people who are bold enough to think they can do something great". The great majority of them, of course, fail.
The problem with making high-stakes bets (e.g. on one's career path) is that the expected outcome of failing will be pretty painful.
...yet the ones that succeed end up having a huge impact on the world economy. I'm willing to be a missile that misses its target.
Anyway, we are talking about blog posts here not careers :) The downsides of accidentally writing a lousy blog post are not large.