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eli_sennesh comments on "Immortal But Damned to Hell on Earth" - Less Wrong Discussion
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It's not just a Mugging. It's also a model that takes no account of agents trying to alter the chances of Hells. Sure, if Hell has a finite probability at any given time, then eventually it should happen, except that an agent is deliberately exerting continual optimization pressure to push that probability down over time.
P(Hell) exists, but its derivative over time is negative.