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[Link] Countering The Inside View and Making Better Decisions
Great article that systemetizes the process of taking the outside view into 4 steps. Thought LWers might get a kick out of it.
http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2015/05/inside-view-michael-mauboussin/
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Comments (4)
Sorry, this was an useless post so now it's gone
I think that this blog often falls into the trap of too much jargon without enough context, because it uses large chunks of direct quotes.
I don't think that it over reached with reference class forecasting - it seemed to me to do a good job of summarazing. Which step do you feel overreached?
The value statement in the article appears to be; "make predictions, assess the quality of those predictions, adjust your prediction engine, repeat"
Misread: Countering the Inside View Makes You Delicious