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turchin comments on Roadmap: Plan of Action to Prevent Human Extinction Risks - Less Wrong Discussion
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I think that you have two ideas: 1. Prediction market for x-risks 2. Built prepare to most probable catastrophe.
I don't buy the first one... But in fact prizes that I suggested in the opening post is something like it. I mean the idea to use money to extract wisdom of the crowd is good. But prediction market is not the best variant. Because majority of people have a lot of strange ideas about x-risks and such ideas would dominate.
The idea to prepare to most probable catastrophe is better. In fact, we could built bio and nuclear refuges, but not AI and nanotech refuges. And bio-hazard refuges are more important as now pandemic seems to be more risky than nuclear war. So we could concentrate on bio-hazard refuges. I would like to award you the prize for the idea and you could PM to me payment details.