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turchin comments on Roadmap: Plan of Action to Prevent Human Extinction Risks - Less Wrong Discussion
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I have an idea related to Plan B – Survive the Catastrophe.
The unfortunate reality is that we do not have enough resources to effectively prepare for all potential catastrophes. Therefore, we need to determine which catastrophes are more likely and adjust our preparation priorities accordingly.
I propose that we create/encourage/support prediction markets in catastrophes, so that we can harness the “wisdom of the crowds” to determine which catastrophes are more likely. Large prediction markets are good at determining relative probabilities.
Of course, the prediction market contracts could not be based on an actual extinction event because no one would be alive to collect the payoff! However, if the contracts are based on severe (but not existential) events, they would still help us infer more accurate estimates for extinction event probabilities.
I think that you have two ideas: 1. Prediction market for x-risks 2. Built prepare to most probable catastrophe.
I don't buy the first one... But in fact prizes that I suggested in the opening post is something like it. I mean the idea to use money to extract wisdom of the crowd is good. But prediction market is not the best variant. Because majority of people have a lot of strange ideas about x-risks and such ideas would dominate.
The idea to prepare to most probable catastrophe is better. In fact, we could built bio and nuclear refuges, but not AI and nanotech refuges. And bio-hazard refuges are more important as now pandemic seems to be more risky than nuclear war. So we could concentrate on bio-hazard refuges. I would like to award you the prize for the idea and you could PM to me payment details.