1. I wrote about my startup failure here.

2. I fail to anticipate disaster.

3. I'm moderately biased towards inaction.

4. I used to not know what the outside view was, and I didn't give nearly enough weight to "outside view evidence".

5. I suffer from wishful thinking. I want to believe in people, but they continue to disappoint me.

6. Related to 5, I instinctively model people as "thinking like me" moreso than I should. Ie. I assume that they perform cost-benefit analyses and stuff. (To be clear, I'm just saying that I have a moderate bias towards doing this, not that I'm incompetent and don't adjust my models at all to the fact that I know people don't think this way.)

7. I'm biased towards self-consistency.

8. I know about scope insensitivity, and I try to adjust accordingly, but I don't do nearly a good enough job. And I don't make nearly an honest enough effort.

9. Arguing against weak opponents/arguments can make you too confident. It could lead to reversed stupidity. You have to argue against the strongest counterarguments. I know this. I've gotten a lot better at avoiding this problem, but I still have a ways to go.

10. I should probably try harder to be happy (in the short-term). Things like paying attention to all the amazing things in the world. Ex. I got to eat a delicious dinner tonight. And be entertained by a great show (Prison Break!). And... <ramble>I get to sleep in a comfortable bed in precisely the temperature I want. I live in a beautiful apartment that is literally a 90 second walk away from my job. I pretty much don't have to worry about money at all. I have access to a gym, a pool, a park with basketball, roads to run and bike on, a football stadium where I get to run the stairs which I really enjoy. I'm incredibly self-confident and legitimately like who I am. I get to shop for pretty much anything I want and have it delivered right to my door for free (Amazon is amazing!). I have access to some of the best courses in the world online. I live in a world where "the american dream is real", and the barriers to starting a startup are as low as ever. There's a ton of interesting information for me to read at moments notice (via the internet). I get to know a ton about how the world works because billions of people have been working at it for thousands of years before me. It'd really really suck if I had to start from the beginning. I get to learn from smart people like Eliezer and Nate Soares. I get to discuss things with smart people on LW whenever I want!</ramble> Anyway, my point is that there are some legitimately amazing things in this world/my life, it's rational to acknowledge them, but I don't do nearly a good enough job of doing so. (That said, there's a lot of horrible things too...)

11. I don't realize that X isn't about Y as often as I should. Ex. I thought that standups were stupid because the communication isn't valuable (in my situation), but then I realized that it's actually more about the social pressure. I'm learning.

(I have a ton of other confessions, but this is all that comes to my head right now.)