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shminux comments on A Proposal for Defeating Moloch in the Prison Industrial Complex - Less Wrong Discussion
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The first thing you suggest, creating a quality model of recidivism, would be eminently worthwhile. So much so, it has probably been done already a few times. Google "model of recidivism" and see how much stuff is out there. Read it.
Yes, there probably exist tons of models, the question is are they any good.
What are the odds that what OP proposes will be any better?
Rather low.