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benkuhn comments on A Proposal for Defeating Moloch in the Prison Industrial Complex - Less Wrong Discussion
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The incentive to try "high volatility" methods seems like an advantage; if many prisons try them, 20% of them would succeed, and we'd learn how to rehabilitate better.
Yep. Concretely, if you take one year to decide that each negative reform has been negative, the 20-80 trade that the OP posts is a net positive to society if you expect the improvement to stay around for 4 years.
Or if they will be replicated by another 20 prisons if they work...