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ChristianKl comments on Open Thread, Jun. 22 - Jun. 28, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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If you want to establish intelligent life on Mars, the best way to do that is by establishing a human colony. Obviously this is unlikely to succeed but trying to evolve microbes into intelligent life is less likely by far.
The likelihood of success of establishing a human colony depends on the timeframe.
If there's no major extinction event I would be surprised if we don't have a human mars colony in 1000 years. On the other hand having a colony in the next 50 years is a lot less likely.