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MarsColony_in10years comments on Effective Altruism from XYZ perspective - Less Wrong Discussion
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If you aren't aware of the relevant decision theory, then I have good news for you!
I'm not sure this is true, at least in the narrow instance of rationalists trying to make maximally effective decisions based on well defined uncertainties. In principle, at least, it should be possible to calculate the value of information. Decision theory has a concept called the expected value of perfect information. If you're not 100% sure of something, but the cost of obtaining information is high (which it generally is in philosophy, as evidenced by the somewhat slow progress over the centuries.) and giving opportunities are shrinking (which they are for many areas, as conditions improve) then you probably want to risk giving sub-optimally by giving now vs later. The price of information is simply higher than the expected value.
Unfortunately, you might still need to make a judgement call to guesstimate the values to plug in.
Thanks! I hadn’t seen the formulae for the expected value of perfect information before. I haven’t taken the time to think them through yet, but maybe they’ll come in handy at some point.