Lumifer comments on Open Thread, Jul. 13 - Jul. 19, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Ideally you want multiple deterrents, of course.
As to the chances of the nuke working, well, you gotta ask yourself, do you feel lucky, punk? X-/
Edited to add: We are discussing here whether Iran wants nukes. Therefore what is relevant is that the Kims wanted nukes, even though they had the artillery-can-reach-Seoul deterrent already.