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James_Miller comments on I have just donated $10,000 to the Immortality Bus, which was the most rational decision of my life - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (79)
Lower than .00005%.
I'll take those odds.
That would still make him more likely than if we were picking a president at random from the adult population. I think that's untrue.
You can pretty easily think of "apocalyptic" scenarios in which Zoltan would end up getting elected in a fairly normal way. Picking a president at random from the adult population would require even more improbable events.
I loved this comment, but then realized I may not have understood it - is the apocalyptic scenario one where a bunch of people die, but somehow those remaining tend to be Zoltan supporters?
I actually meant it more generally, in the sense of highly unusual situations. So gjm's suggested path would count.
But more straightforwardly apocalyptic situations could also work. So a whole bunch of people die, then those remaining become concerned about existential risk -- given what just happened -- and this leads to people becoming convinced Zoltan would be a good idea. This is more likely than a virus that kills non-Zoltan supporters.
I think it's unlikely that someone actively campaigning to be president is less likely than someone who isn't.