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CellBioGuy comments on I have just donated $10,000 to the Immortality Bus, which was the most rational decision of my life - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (79)
Longevity research has improved at a rate of about 1 year longer every 10 years. The probability of a major breakthrough in the next 30 years is quite low, but the existence of an FAI substantially increases that probability. I would argue the probability of a superintelligence being created multiplied by the probability of that entity increasing human lifespan beyond current research trajectories is greater than the same result occurring in the absence of a superintelligence. FAI isn't just important because of the need to preserve the human race; it increases the growth rate of all other technologies.
It has more or less been following a logistic growth curve, with the majority of the change occurring around midcentury and the vast majority of longevity increase occurring in early life due to infectious disease. The oldest people have not gotten appreciably older over civilized human history either.