= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
pianoforte611 comments on Open Thread, Jul. 20 - Jul. 26, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (202)
Have any snake oil salesmen been right?
I usually immediately disregard anyone who has the following cluster of beliefs:
1: The relevant experts are wrong. 2: I have no relevant expertise in this area. 3: My product/idea/ invention is amazing in a world changing way. 4: I could prove it if only the man didn't keep me down.
Characteristic 2 is somewhat optional, but I'm not sure about it. Examples of snake oil ideas include energy healing, salt water as car fuel and people who believe in a flat earth. Ignoring 2, Ludwig Boltzmann is not an example (he did not believe that proof of atoms was being suppressed).
I think this does a good job of screening out probably dumb ideas, but are there any false positives?
No, by definition. Snake oil is defined as "does not work."
But there are examples of denigrated alternative treatments that actually worked to some extent: acupuncture, meditation, aromatherapy etc. Low-carb diets were denigrated for a long time but they've been shown to work at least as well as other diets. Fecal transplants have a long, weird history as an alternative therapy, including things like Bedouins eating camel feces to combat certain infections. The FDA was for a long time very restrictive and skeptical about fecal transplants in spite of lots of positive evidence of their efficacy in certain infections.
A pretty good heuristic, but it's worthwhile to have some open-minded people who investigate these things.
Thanks for the examples:
None of these seem to fulfill 3. They seem to fall into the category of somewhat decent with lots of exaggerated claims and enthusiastic followers.
Fecal transplants are a great example, although wikipedia says that most historical fecal therapies were consumed, and I don't know if those work (doubt it). Also it doesn't really fulfill 2 - it was doctors that first pioneered it when it was a weird fringe treatment. And thinking something is weird/extreme and fringe is different than thinking its a crackpot idea. But still a good example.