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Romashka comments on Open Thread, Jul. 20 - Jul. 26, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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But the penultimate question is kinda answerable, isn't it? Have a Gut Feeling Journal and see for yourself whether GF works. It should be useful for calibration, at least, and also fun.
Also, DO pay more attention to crime reports and integrate them into your planning. I would have said seek out such reports, were your newspapers more diversified.