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Romashka comments on Open Thread, Jul. 20 - Jul. 26, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Coincidence or Correlation?
A couple of months ago, I postponed an overnight camping trip due to a gut feeing. I still haven't taken that particular trip, having focused on other activities.
Today, my local newspaper is reporting that a body was found in that park this morning. My natural human instinct is to think "That could have been me!"... but, of course, instincts are less trustworthy than other forms of thinking.
What are the odds that I'm a low-probability-branch Everett Immortality survivor? Do you think I should pay measurably more attention to such gut feelings in the future? What lessons, if any, are able to be drawn from these circumstances?
But the penultimate question is kinda answerable, isn't it? Have a Gut Feeling Journal and see for yourself whether GF works. It should be useful for calibration, at least, and also fun.
Also, DO pay more attention to crime reports and integrate them into your planning. I would have said seek out such reports, were your newspapers more diversified.