You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

V_V comments on Steelmaning AI risk critiques - Less Wrong Discussion

26 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 23 July 2015 10:01AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (98)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: V_V 28 July 2015 09:55:31PM *  1 point [-]

The argument is that people who talk about the singularity in general or AI risk (the hard-takeoff FOOM scenario) are privileging some low-probability hypotheses based on intuitions that come either directly from religion or from some underlying psychological mechanisms that also generate religious beliefs.

Most beliefs of this kind are wrong. They tend to be unparsimonious. Hence, when presented with a claim of this kind, before we look at the evidence or specific arguments, we should infer at first that the claim is likely wrong. Strong evidence or strong arguments would "screen off" this effect, while lack of evidence or weak arguments based on subjective estimates would not.