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Excellent post - the analysis of our temporal rank with regards to star formation are interesting and novel (for me). I look forward to your next post.
The gist of this is that the astronomical evidence appear to strongly support mediocrity, and thus a prior in which biological life is not super rare.
I'm especially interested in what kind of bets you'd place concerning future discovery for life elsewhere in the solar system such as Europa. I hope you cover Mars too at some point.
In the case of Mars, we have an improbable advantage, because there is already a huge industry and body of knowledge devoted to the discovery of organic-rich rock deposits in regions that are likely to preserve complex carbon forms. If there ever was an ecosystem on the surface of Mars, Exxon will help us find it.
(Although actually, Mars lacks active tectonic plates, so it's not quite the same problem. But many industry tricks and technologies will transfer seamlessly.)