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knb comments on Open Thread, Jul. 27 - Aug 02, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Apparently, NASA is testing an EM Drive, a reactionless drive which to work would have to falsify the law of conservation of momentum. As good Bayesians I know that we should have a strong prior belief that the law of conservation of momentum is correct so that even if EM Drive supporters get substantial evidence we should still think that they are almost certainly wrong, especially given how common errors and fraud are in science. But, my question is how confident should we be that the law of conservation of momentum is correct? Is it, say, closer to .9999 or 1-1/10^20?
Shawyer has said he thinks it doesn't violate conservation of momentum because interacts with "quantum vacuum virtual plasma." I don't really find that reassuring. The current effect size is very small with no sign yet of scaling.