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Houshalter comments on Wear a Helmet While Driving a Car - Less Wrong Discussion
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I am certain that the P(death|~seat belt) != 1.
That's irrelevant. As long as the ratio of seatbelt to not seatbelt is 55/100, you'll end up with the same answer. ~seatbelt could be 0.1 or 0.03 or 0.00007.