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Lumifer comments on Stupid Questions August 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Given that Western political systems are basically a Darwinian selection process, I would be greatly surprised if the political consultants didn't have a good idea about the effectiveness of their propaganda. They certainly gather and examine the data. Of course, there is not much incentive for them to publish their results.
Do you have any reason to believe that political consultants are particularly stupid?
Political consultants make money by convincing politicians that they are useful, not by actually being useful.