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KnaveOfAllTrades comments on Does Probability Theory Require Deductive or Merely Boolean Omniscience? - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (10)
Why can't the deduction be the evidence? If I start with a 50-50 prior that 4 is prime, I can then use the subsequent observation that I've found a factor to update downwards. This feels like it relies on the reasoner's embedding though, so maybe it's cheating, but it's not clear and non-confusing to me why it doesn't count.